BB's Belmont

What a shame for the connections of Casino Drive! To lose the chance of realizing a dream after so much time, effort and money has been spent has got to be gut wrenching. In my mind they are absolutely making the right decision. Many believed that he had the best chance to beat Big Brown, I was not one of those.

I can take the safe route and pick Big Brown to win, almost everyone is. I do think he will most likely win. But I'll take a stand against him. So many freak things can and do happen in racing, that's why they run the races. Here's a way I can see him get beat.

With Guadalcanal's lack of 'big race' experience the noise causes him to break in on Big Brown. Of course spotting the field a few lengths at the Belmont distance probably wouldn't be enough to get BB beat. But he does like to be forwardly placed and if something like a bump or a bad break occurs Desormeaux and BB will have quite a bit of traffic with which to contend. Zito has already stated that Alan Garcia will be told to play the rabbit with Da' Tara so perhaps this will insure a decent pace to the race. I can see Tale of Ekati sitting back off him three lengths while BB has to exert some early effort going wide to get into his comfortable racing position (out of trouble). Icabad Crane will probably be hanging six or seven lengths further back with Denis of Cork just outside him a length or so. By the time they get a three quarters, in lets say 1:11.8, Da' Tara will start to falter. Big Brown, after working early and wide will inherit the lead with a mile in 1:37 with Tale of Ekati two back and Ready's Echo moving up within two lengths also. It will look like lights out. But the field, that has raced in 1:13.2 + and 1:38.4 +, begins to gain. Macho Again and Denis of Cork will be the first to cut into the lead. With an eighth remaining Ready's Echo falters, Tale of Ekati is slowly fading but Denis of Cork and Macho Again are hanging tough. Then Icabad Crane, who has had a perfect trip all the way around, starts to gain. And from the back of the field Guadalcanal is picking up horses. At the sixteenth Denis of Cork is within two lengths of BB Icabad is still gaining a length behind Denis of Cork. A hundred yards out Icabad Crane comes eye to eye with BB. Desormeaux whips BB with no response they fight it out the last hundred yards like Affirmed and Alydar...and at the wire Icabad Crane beats him with a nod! Denis of Cork finishes third three lengths back and from out of the heavens Guadalcanal finishes with a flurry to complete the superfecta! The race goes in 2:27 flat.

Okay, I know... but it's a lot more exciting than the race will probably be!