The Donn Handicap

At opening-line odds of 5-2 Einstein seems enticing. However, I don’t believe he’ll go off there. I think he will end up at 9-5, perhaps 2-1, because of his post. And at those odds I wouldn’t take him to win. I’d have to get at least 3-1 and probably 7-2 to be coerced. My reasoning is simple, Einstein drew the outside post (10) that has yet (through Thurs.) to produce a winner at this distance at this meet. Dirt is not his best surface and his worst effort on dirt was at GP in last year’s Donn, where he also drew outside, albeit the 8 hole.

Arson Squad has really perked up since joining Dutrow’s barn. He won the Meadowlands Cup (G2) and in spite of encountering trouble at the ¼ pole ran 4th, only a tick behind Harlem Rocker, in the Cigar Mile (G1). He obviously relishes the switch back to real dirt. He’s collected 9 checks in 12 attempts on dirt with 6 of them winning efforts. He’s training great and I’d say all systems are a go. At 3-1 he is a definite overlay. Unfortunately, I don’t think he will stay there. I expect him to go off as the favorite or co-favorite with Einstein at 9-5 or 2-1. He’s pointed toward the Dubai World Cup in March and I believe a big effort is expected of him if he is to punch his ticket to Nad Al Sheba. He’s my pick to win.

So where’s the value in the race? I think it is in two horses: A.P. Arrow and On Board Again. A.P. Arrow has not been the same horse since returning from Dubai last year. He finished well back in four Grade 1 appearances. His last race was The Jockey Club Gold Cup on September 27th. (Curlin’s record setting race). Since then he has been switched to Kenny McPeek’s barn. I have a lot of faith in McPeek’s ability and training methods. I also think the change in scenery will have helped A.P. Arrow. He runs his best at GP and usually runs very well first time back. He shows four steady, professional works. He’s a classy horse and I’m not ready to give up on him. He’s well rested and should be past whatever ailed him after his Dubai trip. I also take it as a good sign that Desormeaux took the mount. I’m figuring him for a check.

As for On Board Again I will reiterate what I wrote last week before the Sunshine Millions Classic, in which I picked him to win providing he scratched in. On Board Again will keep the race honest and may end up controlling the speed. His works since his October 29th race have been nothing short of superior. He’s improving, he’s fresh, he’s fast, and Frankel’s training him. I like him to press Finallymadeit from the start, take command at about the half and hold on for a piece, perhaps the biggest piece. I think he’s sitting on a big race.

The Picks:
Win: Arson Squad
Place: A.P. Arrow
Show: On Board Again
Hunch bet: On Board Again across the board.

The Field.
1 Finallymadeit--------E.Nunez ---------J.Negrete-------117-----12-1
2 Albertus Maximus -A.Garcia--------- K.McLaughlin-120----4-1
3 Anak Nakal-----------J.Bravo-----------N.Zito-----------117-----10-1
4 Bullsbay--------------J.Valazquez------G.Motion-------114-----8-1
5 A. P. Arrow-----------K.Desormeaux--K.McPeek-------115-----10-1
6 On Board Again-----E.Coa-------------R.Frankel-------112----20-1
7 Arson Squad---------E.Prado-----------R.Dutrow-------119-----3-1
8 Sir Whimsey---------R.Albarado------ S.Asmussen----116-----12-1
9 Great Hunter--------J.Castellano------D.O'Neill-------116-----15-1
10 Einstein (BRZ)-----J.Leparoux-------H.Pitts----------122-----5-2

The Sunshine Millions Classic

The Sunshine Millions Classic $1,000,000 GP 1 1/8 4 & up Fla. & Cal. Breds.

The one million dollar Sunshine Millions Classic looks like a race that someone might try to win by changing tactics. The race looks to have little or no pace. So someone may try to cash in on one of the oldest angles in racing: lone speed.

Unless On Board Again draws in, Finallymadeit, 2 for 2 at the distance, is the horse that best fits that role. He will go to the front and his draw of post one will also aid him in carrying his speed by allowing him a ground saving trip. Famous Patriot seems the one most likely to try to keep him honest but I think it unlikely that he presses enough to cause Finallymadeit to wilt. Hey Byrn may also be close but if he is I give him no chance to finish. I do expect soft fractions and for Finallymadeit to hang around for a small piece at the end.

However, if On Board Again draw’s in I think there will be enough pace that Finallymadeit will finish out of the money. On Board Again will definitely keep the race honest, as a matter of fact he is fast enough that he may inherit the front in the run down the backside. If he does lookout! Since his October 29th race he has been working extremely well and steadily. The only work he missed was after a bullet in his first work at Gulfstream. Perhaps he did a little too much that day or simply had a cough. In any event he got right back to work and has a great series of 5 and 6f works. If he hasn’t a bottom in him no horse does. He’s improving, he’s fresh, he’s fast, he’s got Johnny V. up and Frankel training him…he’s ready. If he runs I think he wins.

The horse he will have to beat is Delightful Kiss. This horse is a real treasure-trove for Pete Anderson. He has become ultra-consistent in the last six months. My concerns before his win in the Hal’s Hope-that he had logged too many travel miles and had run in too many races since last May - has proved to be unfounded. Since that race on Jan.3 he’s had two maintenance works (he must be kicking the barn down). The last work was three days ago. That is in keeping with his pre-race schedule of his last two races, that have also been his best two races. If On Board Again doesn’t run Delightful Kiss will not be denied the winners buss!

Of the rest of the field I think there are two that may be heard from. The first is Atoned. He’s another horse that has a great set of works. Also, his last two races have shown him returning to old form, and, he is more versatile than the others.

The other is my longshot pick for the race, Medzendeekron. After fading to fourth in his first attempt at two turns he broke his maiden next out going 1-1/16 while displaying a good late turn of foot. And he ran 3rd going two turns at Del Mar back in Aug ’07. Of course the caveat is these were all on grass. In two dirt appearances he was off the board. They were his first starts so, perhaps, he can be excused. However, his pedigree screams turf and that is the cause for my hesitation. If he can transfer his grass / synthetic form to dirt he will be very dangerous at a big price. That Jan.17th work of 7f in 124 3/5 tells me distance is no problem.

The Picks:

If On Board Again Runs:
Win: On Board Again
Exacta Box: On Board Again – Delightful Kiss
Show Atoned

If On Board Again does not run:
Win: Delightful Kiss
Place: Atoned
Show: Finallymadeit

PP.
1. Finallymadeit (FL) 122 Eduardo Nunez 12-1
2. Dream Maestro (FL) 120 J.C. Jeyva 20-1
3. Macho Again (FL) 120 Kent Desormeaux 4-1
4. Palladio (FL) 122 Robby Albarado 12-1
5. It's A Bird (FL) 122 Julien Leparoux 12-1
6. Medzendeekron (CA) 122 Alan Garcia 20-1
7. Dry Martini (FL) 122 Edgar Prado 6-1
8. Atoned (FL) 120 Chris DeCarlo 5-1
9. Hey Byrn (FL) 120 Cornelio Velasquez 6-1
10. Nima's Pad (CA) 120 Martin Garcia 20-1
11. Famous Patriot (FL) 120 Javier Castellano 20-1
12. Delightful Kiss (FL) 122 Calvin Borel 3-1
AE On Board Again (FL) 122 John Velazquez 8-1
AE Solmen Promise (FL) 122 Aaron Gryder 20-1
AE Pistol Pete Afleet (FL) 120 Jesus Rios 20-1

Symptoms of the Times

The Keeneland January 'Horses of all Ages' sale ended with a drop in gross of 53.4% from last year. The steady and steep drop in prices, that started to make itself evident late last summer, is no longer surprising or really even "news," merely a reality of the times. And, I will argue, the best thing that can happen to the industry.

One of the problems in racing is the cost of keeping a horse in training. At many of the best tracks that dollar amount is edging toward or is at about $100 dollars a day. That's before vets, cost of meds, shoes, entry fees etc... That's roughly $36,000 a year before the aforementioned added expenses. Yes, it is 'The Sport of Kings' but we need more than just kings to supply our sport. Kings don't have any interest in running $5,000 claimers, they want Derby horses and can afford to pay for them. The problem that has created, however, has caused a trickle down effect that has hurt the industry.

Let's look at it in terms of the current sub-prime housing market mess. In the Hudson Valley, where I live, on the heels of 9/11 there began a mass exodus out of the city and into the suburbs. White collar workers from the city that could afford to pay much more for houses than they traditionally sold for did just that; they paid more, much more. As a result houses that may have been valued at $x dollars quickly escalated to two or three times their true value. Also to accommodate this boon more and larger houses (fashionable pedigrees) popped up out of the ground on almost every available piece of real estate. That had the effect of escalating housing costs even more. And, of course, property taxes went up to reflect the newly set assessed prices of the houses as well as to accommodate services for the ever growing population. Many that had lived in those areas either moved (predominantly just a little farther north) because they could no longer keep pace with the taxes or because they could now sell their house at record amounts and buy more house elsewhere also at inflated rates. Or they borrowed money against their newly valued pot of gold. Of course the result of 'trading' real estate as though it was a commodity, not a necessity and long term investment, was that for all intents and purposes (in my estimate) the market sapped about 20-25 years of appreciation out of real estate within 5 years. This left many with the glum reality of paying to eventually own (hopefully) what they already possess without much, or any, hope of appreciation. How does this compare to racing?


Think of taxes as the equal of day money, that $100 a day + expenses that is necessary to keep a horse in training. The first thing that happens when someone can't afford to pay that is that they move. In the industry that means they either move their horses to another, less expensive track or get out of the business. But if the price of purses is a reflection of the racing stock then it is already a losing situation to move one's horse from an A track to a B or C track where purses will make it most unlikely that owners can ever break even or better on their investment. We're already lucky in that most people in this business love it enough to endure losses.

I also think we can equate the cost of horses at the sales over the last decade and a half very well to the escalating price of houses caused by people over paying or speculating on houses as short term investments. Many of those in the industry were forced to purchase stock at ever increasing prices just to keep up with the Jones'. This trend was caused predominantly by two forces, as I see it: the wildly escalating cost of the top end of the market dragging all prices upward, and speculators- pinhookers- in the horse industry, gambling on fashionable stock as a short term investment. Also the top or fashionable market has had the result of over-breeding stallions. When a horse (especially a new stallion) covers 150-200 mares two things result. The new fashion will demand more money at the sales but when they fail at the track the depreciation is dramatic because there are so many of the same model.

The elements that in the world at large are slowly turning the landscape in many areas into ghost-towns will have, in my opinion, just the opposite effect in the horse industry. While many breeders are going to take quite a hit for a while, or be forced out of business, those breeders that always had an eye toward producing racing stock are going to see their way out of the woods. And the easing of prices that reflect understandable, reasonable levels of risk will allow many that would have been forced out of racing the ability to continue. A 53.4% (48% avg. 44.1% median) decreased cost at the sales translates to a lot of day money. Of course the top end stock is going to remain out of reach for most. However, many horses that at one time may have been out of reach for many will now become available. Also the escalated risk of speculation will keep pinhookers from buying as high or as many, and that also will have the same result. I think this is a winning situation for the industry.

I know I'm going to get a lot of flack from pinhookers for painting them as part of the problem but to some extent they are. To some extent every middle-man in every industry are good and bad. Good in that they provide a necessary service, bad in that that price rarely truly reflect the benefit of the service.

The only way owners have to mitigate the cost of racing is through purses. In a time when handle is slumping and as a result purses, the return to reasonable prices at market is a welcome recipe for health in the industry.

While I'm hopeful that what some see as a downturn in business will actually result in renewed health more is necessary to keep the industry healthy. And that something is transparency. In the horse industry that means disclosure of any and all procedures a horse has received. Even the car industry has a lemon law! Buyer beware is not good enough when the price and risk of success is already so high. Transparency coerces integrity. It forces honesty when that is not being offered. And this has to be present in this industry more than any other because the sport's very existence is based on the good faith belief by the players that all is legitimate. I believe this has to include the media in the sport as well. We at the TBA have a wonderful arrangement for blog space with the Blood-Horse. However, only months ago a submission of mine was rejected because I railed against some of the practices of the breeding industry. While that is understandable because of where their ad dollars come from it is a bit sad and disappointing. My point wasn't earth shattering or something that most haven't also thought. Basically it was just about how breeders that just breed 'fashionable' pedigrees are hurting the industry and the extensions of that idea. It was just my opinion, not even necessarily fact, so I don't see how an advertiser should hold them responsible. But, I suppose if it appears on their site they retain some responsibility for content. I bring this up, not to single out the Blood-Horse because it is not just that publication that operates this way, it is just the only one I have had experience with. Also I noticed in the most recent issue of the BH (#3), -about the downturn- there are several times when this issue is hinted at. Of course they use euphemism's such as "breeding to race." But, if breeding to race can be distinguished from something else what else can that something else be aside from breeding to sell? Isn't that a consideration that has been around for a long, long time? Why was it taboo? All the industry publications have a duty to the industry as well as their duty of survival. If the industry doesn't survive neither will they. I often use the analogy of the remora. All of us that make a living or enjoy the sport are in some way remora's benefiting from the sport. But let's remember that it can't be all one way. We can't all just take from it. When that happens the host dies. We all, in all our different capacities, have to also give back to the sport.

It all begins in the breeding shed and the auctions. That is where the price starts adding up. Many have put forth ideas for monetary remedies such as a cap on stallion fees, limiting crop size, minimum standing age of stallions (one of mine read here), among others and combinations of those ideas. The reality may be that there are too many tracks, too many horses and not enough money to support them all. All businesses go through cycles of boom and bust. Some are not going to make it through this retraction. Most that will fail probably deserve to. The continued health of any business is dependant on a quality product, foresight and good planning based on realty, not speculation. When speculation holds sway the majority lose. For the health of the sport we need all involved in the industry to look at it as a inter-dependant enterprise not as a piece of real estate that can be fought over and dominated. That means horsemen, tracks, ADW's, breeder's, fans, and governments. Perhaps even the secondary and tertiary businesses such as trucking, farming etc... When the sport is healthy everybody benefits. After the chaff has blown away I think the industry will experience a healthier future from the results of the perceived downturn. Not everything is always as it appears.

The Mr. Prospector H. (G3)

The Mr. Prospector (G3) 6F GP $100,000 4yo and up

As handicappers we all look for the shape and pace of a race to make decisions. However, on certain occasions I don’t think those factors matter too much. In some cases a race is a particular horse’s to lose. For me the Mr. Prospector H. falls into that category. I think Black Seventeen enjoys a class advantage on dirt and if he runs his "A" race can’t be denied. The switch back to dirt is the key consideration of that assumption. He has a conditioning race into him in his present cycle and while I’m sure his trainer, Brian Koriner, wasn’t thinking about the El Conejo H.(G3) as a conditioner that is what it amounted to. If he stays anywhere near the 5-1 opening line (he won’t) he is also the overlay in the race.

Obviously the 8-year-old Kelly’s Landing has a lot of back class. But ‘back’ is the operative word here. He has not been the same horse since his return after winning the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G.I) in March of 2007. His last graded win in the U.S. was this very race in 2007. That is cause for some consideration as horses have a knack for winning the same races year after year. He also shows a few nice works. However, with his diminished and continued ouchy form I would consider him only in exotic wagers.

He’s So Chic, the 5-2 favorite has the perfect stalking style that suits the race and track. Through Wednesday over 50% of 6F sprints at Gulfstream were won by this style of runner. However, Black Seventeen can run that race as well.

There’s a lot of speed in this race and the charge will be led by Ikigai (3-1) and Rollers (4-1). But, I don’t think this race will be won on the front end. Of the two Rollers looks more interesting. Even though most of his race experience has been in State company (NY), he ran very well in his two open-company stake races. With the exception of his disappointing race in the mud last out he has shown continued improvement. His work tab, punctuated by a bullet work on the 10th at GP, is a model of consistency that bespeaks of a happy and healthy horse. An additional plus is having Alan Garcia up. I like him to hang around for a piece at the end.

The dark horse is Granizo (BRZ). Any horse that wins 6 of 7 is telling you he has class. How to gauge that class is anyone’s guess. But, it would be a mistake to dismiss any horse with that record that has, on three occasions, gone off at 1-10! All of his wins were on off-tracks, so keep that in mind. If he looks well on the track and his odds stay or drift up from 8-1 and you have a few extra dollars, consider him for the runner-up spot.

Here’s the field:
1 Kelly’s Landing ---J. Leperoux---- E. Kenneally----122----- 6-1
2 Granizo (Brz) ---- E.Trujillo------- R. Malek--------118-----8-1
3 How’s Your Halo - J. Leyva--------B.Pritchard------120 ----8-1
4 Black Seventeen -C. Potts ---------B. Koriner------ 122---- 5-1
5 Ikigai ------------ J.Bridgmohan---M. Wolfson----- 120---- 3-1
6 He’s So Chic ------J. Lezcano -------J. Servis ------- 118----- 5-2
7 Rollers ----------- A. Garcia-------- B. Tagg---------120----- 4-1

The Picks:
Win: Black Seventeen.
Exacta box: Black Seventeen with Rollers
Tri. B. S. with Rollers and Kelly’s Landing with all

The Hal's Hope

The Hal's Hope Handicap 100k (gr.III) for 4 year olds and up at Gulfstream Park opening day looks like a great race. It has all the ingredients horse players love: a full field, quality runners, and pace. Here's may take on the runners and my choices.

#1 Cuba K. Desormeaux - R. Dibona ML 15-1
First of all don't like the post for Cuba. While he likes to be involved he doesn't have the type of speed that can carry a mile. And with Rexson's Rose and Finally Made It as well as 11 others outside of him Desormeaux will have to make an early decision. He's not going to win from off the pace so I think Desormeaux has to send him and by doing so I think he really takes away any chance, albeit very slim to begin with, he has to finish for a check.

#2 True Resurgence C. Valasquez - J. Terranova 12-1
An honest horse that will be pressing the pace. This is a good distance for him (3-2-1-0). The positives stop there. He appears to be a level below the best here. To much traffic where he likes to run and his suspect class will have him used up by the half.

#3 Fearless Vision E.Coa - P. Reynolds 12-1
A very nice horse. His only loss at the distance came on an off track (5-4-1-0) to another nice horse: Like Now. His last four races - all at a mile - have been his best efforts. He has really matured into the best form of his career. He showed some signs of class at three when he finished third in the Peter Pan S. Ironically the horse that finished behind him was Hal's My Hope! So if you think he's going to win you probably need that information to make it a hunch bet. I don't see him finishing in the money. He's a horse that likes to be close to the pace and that pace is likely to be a little too heated for him to last. If the race goes in 45+ and 1:10 he won't be around at the wire and even if it goes slower I don't see him hanging with the creme of the field at the wire.

#4 Delightful Kiss C.Borel - P. Anderson 7-2
The class of the field. This Ohio and Iowa Derby winner may have run his best race last out in finishing as the runner up to Einstein in the (g.II) Clark Handicap at Churchill on Nov. 28. The pace will definitely be to his liking as he will be coming fast and from the clouds. He has also worked very nicely since his Clark effort. However, I will take a stand against him here. Though I think he will be collecting a check at the end I don't see him winning. I think the distance just a bit too short and I expect the travel miles and toll of his very ambitious 2008 campaign will conspire to be his undoing here.

#5 Famous Patriot J. Castellano - T.Hills 20-1
His recent form had been slowly deteriorating and he has been away from racing for more than two months now. On the positive side of things are the fact that he ran very well at Gulfstream last year as a three year old. He has also been in Florida longer than most and shows a steady and productive work tab. However, his best racing has been on or close to the pace, and after a two month layoff success at the mile distance and with the speed in this race the task is not within his reach.

#6 It's A Bird J. Bridgemohan - M. Wolfson 8-1
A very nice horse that has improved with age. He has also shown some class and versatility. He is also stationed in Florida and I think that gives him a distinct advantage early in the Florida season. He is continuing to improve with every race. His performance in the Kenny Noe Jr. H. (g.III) on Dec. 13th was a perfect setup for this race and he has been working lights out and on schedule for this start. I like his chances to pick up a piece of the pie and a chance to cash the biggest check.

#7 Rexson's Rose J. Rivera II - B. Rose 30-1
His odds also reflect my thoughts on his chance at cashing a check. He will be the speed and probably be fading by the half. While I'm sure he will be a sentimental choice for some, as he is owned by the Rose family who owned Hal's Hope, his only contribution to this race will be the short lived fast early pace he will deliver.

#8 Now A Victor J. Velazquez - M.Trombetta 6-1
He was a late comer to racing (4yo) but he has done nothing wrong on the track. He's won 4 of five (5-4-1-0) with a black type win in the 2007 Discovery H. (g.III) and just missed (2nd nk) in the Pegasus (g.III) the same year. You also have got to love a son of Yankee Victor at the mile distance. However, concerns about what ails him continue. He has raced only once in 2008 after being away a year, winning gate to wire on Nov. 27th at the big A in an OC75K/n3x at 6 1/2 f. If he's healthy and fit - his work tab suggests that he is, including a bullet at Palm Meadows on Dec. 29th - he has shown he can carry his speed a long way. While I won't be stunned if he finds a way to grab a piece I think his lack of race conditioning will have him just missing. Very dangerous!

#9 National Pride E. Truillo - K. McLaughhlin 12-1
The Darley runner is another horse that looks as though he will be pressing a fast pace. He loves the distance and has beaten a few decent horses. But he's going to have to step his performance up a notch or two to win here. He is a very late comer to Florida (sometime after Dec. 20th) and I think that weighs heavily against him. He also hasn't raced in in 48 days. While that is not generally a concern with McLaughlin the only other time the colt came off a layoff he didn't fare well. I would expect him to move up a little on an off track. All in all too many if's for me. If he steps up, if the late shipping doesn't hurt, if the layoff, if the pace doesn't expose lack of race conditioning.... I'll look elsewhere.

#10 Finally Made It E. Nunez - J. Negrete 10-1
Very dangerous because he can stretch his speed out. He will be keeping Rexson's Rose company on the front end. So it will just come down to how fast the pace is. With so many wanting to be forwardly placed I'm guessing too fast for Finally Made It. I think he is just a tick below these in class. In the two races both he and It's A Bird contested in he was never much of a factor. While not impossible to hang on and get a piece I don't see that happening. I think he'll be steadily backing up as the race unfolds.

#11 Anak Nakal J.Bravo - N. Zito 6-1
The Zito runner will have the pace all his way. Yet, the show runner in the 2008 Belmont Stakes and Pa.Derby(gr.II) winner has yet to show that he is maturing into the quality type of horse he was expected to be. Okay he won the the Pa. Derby but who did he beat? His first race back in this cycle was a miserable showing in the Clark H. (gII) at Churchill Nov.28th. The pace in that race while not fast, considering the entrants, but was respectable and yet he still faded. He has had only one work since the Clark a pedestrian 4f work in 49.60 (at best). This has me questioning his fitness. While the race will set up for him he's going to have to prove me wrong as I'm leaving him out of my figuring.

#12 Bribon A. Garcia - R. Ribaudo 5-1
The Ribaudo runner is my pick to collect the big check. He's running better than ever and improving with each race. He loves the distance (5-2-2-1) and has been working very well up to the race. He ran a monster race in the Cigar Mile (g.I) last out, a performance that would be plenty good enough to win this one. His Dec.21 work makes me believe the Cigar hasn't left him empty. I think he is sitting on his best race yet. Breaking from the 12 hole Garcia will be probably be able to avoid any early trouble and pick a spot where he will be most comfortable, probably 4 or 5 shortening lenghts as the race unfolds. He will finish strong as always. I think he's the horse to beat in the Hal's Hope and I don't think any will. Bribon will add a black type win to his resume on Saturday.

#13 Bullsbay J. Leparoux - G. Motion 20-1
The morning line overlay in my mind. When you have a son of Tiznow that runs well, Leparoux up and is trained by Graham Motion the stars may be properly aligned. In his first race back in this cycle he finished only 2 behind Black Seventeen and has only improved since. His switch to dirt seems to have moved his performances up even more! His two races at Churchill were his best performances yet after a very good early career run entirely on synthetics. Watch out! He is my long shot possibility in the field.

#14 Storm In May J. Lezcano - W. Kaplan 30-1
In 2007 he won the Sunshine Millions Dash and placed in the Arkansas Derby (g.II). But along with Rexson's Rose they are the only two horses I don't think can win this race. While his post suits him, as he'll be coming from the clouds I think he'll still be in them when they cross the line. I think his black type days are behind him.


My Picks: #12 Bribon to win
#13 Bullsbay a long shot ticket to win.
#12 Bribon exacta box with #4 Delightful Kiss and #6 It's A Bird.
If pushed to play a trifecta. I'd play #12 Bribon with #4 Delightful Kiss & #13 Bullsbay with
The #4 Delightful Kiss, #6 It's A Bird , #8 Now A Victor and #13 Bullsbay.

It appears to be a great race! Enjoy!