Saturday, January 17, 2009

The Mr. Prospector H. (G3)

The Mr. Prospector (G3) 6F GP $100,000 4yo and up

As handicappers we all look for the shape and pace of a race to make decisions. However, on certain occasions I don’t think those factors matter too much. In some cases a race is a particular horse’s to lose. For me the Mr. Prospector H. falls into that category. I think Black Seventeen enjoys a class advantage on dirt and if he runs his "A" race can’t be denied. The switch back to dirt is the key consideration of that assumption. He has a conditioning race into him in his present cycle and while I’m sure his trainer, Brian Koriner, wasn’t thinking about the El Conejo H.(G3) as a conditioner that is what it amounted to. If he stays anywhere near the 5-1 opening line (he won’t) he is also the overlay in the race.

Obviously the 8-year-old Kelly’s Landing has a lot of back class. But ‘back’ is the operative word here. He has not been the same horse since his return after winning the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G.I) in March of 2007. His last graded win in the U.S. was this very race in 2007. That is cause for some consideration as horses have a knack for winning the same races year after year. He also shows a few nice works. However, with his diminished and continued ouchy form I would consider him only in exotic wagers.

He’s So Chic, the 5-2 favorite has the perfect stalking style that suits the race and track. Through Wednesday over 50% of 6F sprints at Gulfstream were won by this style of runner. However, Black Seventeen can run that race as well.

There’s a lot of speed in this race and the charge will be led by Ikigai (3-1) and Rollers (4-1). But, I don’t think this race will be won on the front end. Of the two Rollers looks more interesting. Even though most of his race experience has been in State company (NY), he ran very well in his two open-company stake races. With the exception of his disappointing race in the mud last out he has shown continued improvement. His work tab, punctuated by a bullet work on the 10th at GP, is a model of consistency that bespeaks of a happy and healthy horse. An additional plus is having Alan Garcia up. I like him to hang around for a piece at the end.

The dark horse is Granizo (BRZ). Any horse that wins 6 of 7 is telling you he has class. How to gauge that class is anyone’s guess. But, it would be a mistake to dismiss any horse with that record that has, on three occasions, gone off at 1-10! All of his wins were on off-tracks, so keep that in mind. If he looks well on the track and his odds stay or drift up from 8-1 and you have a few extra dollars, consider him for the runner-up spot.

Here’s the field:
1 Kelly’s Landing ---J. Leperoux---- E. Kenneally----122----- 6-1
2 Granizo (Brz) ---- E.Trujillo------- R. Malek--------118-----8-1
3 How’s Your Halo - J. Leyva--------B.Pritchard------120 ----8-1
4 Black Seventeen -C. Potts ---------B. Koriner------ 122---- 5-1
5 Ikigai ------------ J.Bridgmohan---M. Wolfson----- 120---- 3-1
6 He’s So Chic ------J. Lezcano -------J. Servis ------- 118----- 5-2
7 Rollers ----------- A. Garcia-------- B. Tagg---------120----- 4-1

The Picks:
Win: Black Seventeen.
Exacta box: Black Seventeen with Rollers
Tri. B. S. with Rollers and Kelly’s Landing with all

1 comment:

Chalk Eating Weasel said...

Golly, I almost think you read my post today at Chalk Eating Weasel. I'm surprised Black Seventeen is 5-1 in the ML, but maybe not. You know how people will go for those flashy speed figures the 6 and 7 horse have been sporting.