Friday, April 17, 2009

The Coolmore Lexington S. (G2)

Coolmore Lexington S.
1 -1/16 Three Year Olds $300,000

The Coolmore Lexington S. (G2) is supposed to be all about Square Eddie, but his supposed superiority, to even this rather pedestrian field, is questionable to me in this race. The reasons are manifold. First, he hasn’t raced in 91 days. Perhaps that’s not a big deal for older horses, perhaps even older three year-olds, but for a maturing three year old it can make all the difference in the world. It’s impossible to know where he stands in comparison to his crop at this point. Second, the layoff was brought about by injury. Further, it seems from his work tab that he is being rushed and his conditioning may be a bit light for his return. One can make the argument that his class will allow him to overcome. However, one can also look at his last race, The San Rafael (G3) on 1/17 where he ran second to The Pamplemousse, as a turning point where a maturing crop of newly turned three-year-olds started to catch up to him. There are also the considerations of race fitness and experience. Even though he has had 7 races one can envision a young three year-old being a bit green after such a layoff and shipping in from California. After taking all this into consideration one also has to question his ability to come back in three weeks to run in the Derby if he has a hard race. The fact that he doesn’t need the money to enter the gate on May 2 would have me believing the connections are not going to lay him down to win here. I see this as a glorified workout. He may very well be far superior to this bunch but at 9-5 and so many negatives I’m looking elsewhere for my winner.

I didn’t have to look any farther than the next stall from which El Crespo will break. I’m tossing out his first race (Keeneland ), last October, as a learning experience. Since then he has shown some real talent on the turf. In his next race he ran second going two turns at Churchill in what was a key race and followed that up by breaking his maiden going 1- 1/16 at Gulfstream Park. Owner, G. Watts Humphrey and trainer, George Arnold must have thought they had something special at that point because they brought him back in the Grade 3 Holy Bull. Unfortunately he finished up the track. He returned six weeks later to win the 9f Grade 3T, Palm Beach S. under the guidance of J.J. Castellano for the first time. I really like a horse that comes back from an awful performance and does something special. It shows they were not demoralized. It just wasn’t their day, their surface, or something just went wrong. Well he returns here fresh off that win and while it is not turf I think he should be able to transfer his form to the Keeneland track. He is a colt that can stay close on turf and sill finish well and that seems to be a style that lends itself to running well on synthetics. Arnold has kept him fit Castellano stay aboard and I think he will win.

The outside posts haven’t fared too well at Keeneland at 1-1/16th but I’m going to put Advice into my picks even though he breaks from post 11. In his first race this cycle on 2/26 he ran a very game race finishing 3rd going 1-1/16 in an N1x at SA. The comment read “lugged in 1/8.” He obviously got a bit leg weary which is understandable. On 3/29 Pletcher shipped him to New Mexico for the Sunland Derby. In that race he finished very nicely considering he was checked early. He shows a nice work over the Keeneland track and Pletcher takes the blinkers off. Pletcher is 24% when taking the blinkers off and I think this move will help pad that statistic. Advice likes to put in that one late run so this should help relax him early saving valuable energy. The race also sets up well for this type of runner. Gomez takes the mount and that’s never bad. I’m picking him to run very well and pick off horses late but come up short of the winner, El Crespo.
The Picks:
Win:-----El Crespo------Won’t go to Deby despite the win.
Place:----Advice----------Take it he’ll be in the money.
Show:----Square Eddie----Big questions to be answered.

For more analysis on this race check out Amateurcapper's analysis using thorograph figures.

1 comment:

Amateurcapper said...


Great price pick...I may have to use him with my price horses.