Flux or Flub ?

Whenever crises' occur the calls and challenges for change are heard. This is true regardless of the size or scope of an an issue. It can be national security, the economy or the much smaller stage of horse racing. We work under the assumption that these crises could or would have been avoided had the players done something different. The truth is we will never know for sure; there is no way to go back and do it again. Was Eight Belles' breakdown avoidable? I don't see how anyone could say it was. Sometimes bad things happen. PETA and other activist organizations always try to take advantage of tragic happenings. Their arguments under these circumstances are always ad populum arguments. Obviously, in a situation such as this, every one's emotions are going to be sympathetic to the horse (horses by extension). Further, these arguments portray their target as having the opposite sentiments; that is simply not the case here. Just because Eight Belles broke down doesn't mean that the industry doesn't care about the horses. Again just the opposite is true. Their contentions that the surface or the whip was necessarily a cause of the accident also commits an argumentative fallacy. This is an atypical occurrence. It does not follow that because breakdowns occur (let alone this particular breakdown) then all industry practices are wrong or inhumane. And it doesn't prove that all horses that feel the whip are going to break down or are abused.

The industry is concerned about the care and treatment of horses, lessening the occurrences of breakdowns and portraying the sport in a positive light. But, I agree they can do more. First and foremost they have to act as united industry. Positive change is not going to occur if every racing jurisdiction doesn't adopt uniform rules. The first issue that needs to be agreed on is a uniform drug policy that will include steroids. Decide what's legal and what's illegal and have good reason for making those decisions. If bute or another substance is deemed legal to use during training then make it known that on race day any amount above allowable limits will result in an extreme penalty, suspension or both. In regard to serious violations, banned substances, etc., it should be a once and you're out policy. A trainer is responsible for his barn. Biancone should be gone. This is necessary to show the public that the industry is serious and does care about the treatment of the horses. The public needs to know that the horses' well being is not being compromised for a pot of gold. And, further, the handicappers need to have confidence that the product they are investing in is legitimate. No compromise is acceptable. A slap on the hand and lip service is not enough.

Surfaces are the talk of the industry at the moment. I believe a lot more needs to be known before we all embrace the synthetics. The statistics are far from decisive. There are so many variables they may never be. Just comparing numbers is not enough. The types and ages of horses using those synthetics need to be taken into account. The weather conditions as well. For those of us who watch winter racing in NY we have become used to seeing many of the same old warriors year after year. These horses have already proven themselves pretty durable. With this class/type of horse running I would expect to see fewer injuries/breakdowns no matter the surface. With 2 and 3 year old Graded races I would expect that the extreme level of competition and age of the horses would result in more injuries no matter the surface. I really don't know if these assumptions are true, I'll look into it.

We do hear of different types of injuries and soreness occurring in horses training on synthetics, particularly hind end soreness. My theory on this is that they can't grab the surface quite as well so their hind legs slip ever so slightly as they propel themselves. Maybe certain horses won't extend themselves when they feel this. Also I don't think the issue of going from synthetic to dirt has been looked at enough, if at all. As I understand it, in humans, the stress of concussion helps strengthen bones. And the stress of resistance training helps develop muscle. Obviously too much concussion can lead to tragic events, but we need some stress to maintain strong bones and muscle. So my concern is: will we see an increased occurrence of injuries in horses that switch from synthetics to dirt? Do they get enough concussion on the synthetics? I prefer watching racing on dirt. I believe that dirt tracks can be made as safe as any. But, if it can be proven otherwise, so be it.

Obviously there are many more issues that need to be dealt with. And just because the arguments made by PETA are not logical that does not mean that some of the issues that they point to are not legitimate. If they weren't there wouldn't already be rules in place about excessive whipping or the controversy now taking place about synthetics. But progress does need to be made. The industry needs to show they are in a state of positive flux trying to improve conditions. If they don't it will be just another tragically flubbed situation.

The last thing I'll add here is that I think the biggest crime resulting from this situation is the damage PETA's statements are meant to cause Gabriel Saez. How can one not feel for him? Twenty years old, first Derby, a well ridden race and then... I'm sure no one feels as badly as he does. To try to crucify him, to me, illustrates inhumane treatment by PETA. They could make their point without whipping him so much after the wire! I read a comment somewhere where the writer suggested he (Saez) should sue them for libel. I'm sure he'll act with more class than that (he already has) but they deserve worse. Shame on them!

It's a Shame

It's so unfortunate how much negativism is occurring because of Eight Belles breakdown. I know those of us who are fans don't enjoy seeing them happen (breakdowns), but I suppose we accept them more easily than the non-fan. Acceptance is not the same as callousness. We are not immune to the tragedy, nor the emotions or empathy that any human would feel under such circumstances. I am also surprised at how much criticism is being thrown around about the handling of the tragedy and not just at the industry in general. It's been aimed at everyone and thing from NBC to Donna Brothers to Larry Jones. Richard Sanomir and William Rhoden's articles in the NYT are certainly making the rounds. Alan Left at the Gate mentioned Rhoden's article yesterday and I more or less expected that was the last I would see of it. So you can imagine how surprised I was when I went to visit another of my favorite blogs - The Frontal Cortex, not horse related (usually) - and I was again faced with Rhoden's article. Jonah Lehrer writes a terrific blog and he has a great book out, Proust Was A Neuroscientist, and I urge you all to give it a visit. However, I obviously disagree with his opinion (he is in agreement with Rhoden) on this issue. Yesterday, I didn't comment directly on Rhoden's comments at Allan's blog because I didn't really think them worth response. But, today, encountering the article again, in a completely different context and arena, I felt more compelled. So rather than repeat myself here's the link: The Frontal Cortex.

**For convenience I have added the text below -with some spelling corrections-on 5/12/08. But please do visit Jonah's site, it is very good.The Frontal Cortex.

Jonah, I don't agree with you or Rhoden at all. I think that it would be an enlightening experience for you to work at a track for a while and then see if you still feel the same way. You obviously have diligently applied yourself in the areas of your choosing. I'm certain your experiences in those areas have informed your opinions; from your time and experience in the lab to that of the kitchen. It's very easy to criticize the worst part of anything, it's the worst part of it! But I have experienced more heart and soul in the race industry than anywhere else. Risk is inherent in almost everything. There is more in horseracing; some activities do present greater risk than others. No one in the industry wants injuries to occur nor are they immune to the tragedy. They are an unfortunate reality that is part of the business. The more an activity is performed the more every possible outcome will occur. But make no mistake, the horses are very well trained and cared for athletes, especially those running at the level of the Kentucky Derby. The argument that these horses are forced to do this I can't address. No one can really know what their thoughts are, but I do know many seem to love and thrive on the competition. Rhoden's comparison of racing to bullfighting is just absurd. As to the question of why is H.Racing given a pass? I think the question is phrased so there can't be a proper response. It implies guilt. Again, I urge you to go work at the track for a bit. While there are good and bad (people, systems and intentions) in every aspect in life, I certainly have not seen any hint of ill intent by anyone I have encountered in the industry; there is no guilt that I have seen. Again this is not to say the industry does not have serious issues they need to deal with. Perhaps as an industry there is some guilt in not dealing with those issues as one body, but that is off point here. Horseracing does have wonderful tradition and it does generate lots and lots of revenue for state and local governments. Since when are they bad things? I can't talk to the issue of dog racing I have no knowledge or experience of it. I like many others have heard the hearsay, I don't know the facts. In his article Rhoden also wrongly attributes intention to Larry Jones' (Eight Belles trainer) comments when he writes "But even through the grief, Jones instinctively toed the industry line about racing." I think it's irresponsible reporting. It should have properly been attributed that in his (Rhoden's) opinion that was what Jones' was doing. Again a sentence phrased so as to imply guilt. Just irresponsible (and this is in The NYT). Jones has been in the sport a long time. We all are familiar with the downside of whatever profession we work in and Jones obviously was dealing with a highly emotional and difficult situation. Rhoden's portrayal of Jones would make any reader think that Jones' grief was less than sincere. It also makes it seem that Jones' response was defensive as if he believed he needed to defend the industry he has dedicated his life to. In my opinion, if Jones was defensive I believe that Rhoden likely made him feel that way if indeed he actually was the one interviewing him. Racing is a wonderful sport that has inherent in its nature, the risk of very tragic events. It is very unfortunate that one of those occurrences had to part of the Kentucky Derby.

Big Brown

It is exciting when you know you are seeing something special. Anyone watching Big Brown's performance in the Kentucky Derby had to be excited. He was lucky enough to get the perfect trip and the perfect ride from Desormeaux, but that was as much a result of design and talent than anything else. There are times when I am happy to be wrong and this is one of them. I didn't think he could win this race, having had only three prior starts and breaking from post 20. He hadn't been tested against the best three year olds. But yesterday I think he could have run the race in the 20 path all the way around and won.

Seeing Big Brown after the race,walking along as cool and calm as if he were walking the shed row, for me, was the most amazing sight of all. It was as if he hadn't even ran. One has to think that the mile and a half Belmont distance won't present any problem for him. But that is putting the cart before the horse.

Colonel John and Pyro gave each other a pretty good bump at the start and never got to be a factor in the race. Big Brown will still have to overcome some race circumstances, like those bumps at the start. He has not yet had to contend with any problems but to get the grail he more than likely will. But, today it's much easier to see why Richard Dutrow has been so confident. Very good horses rarely get themselves in trouble and perhaps that is why he has avoided any problems thus far. Until the Derby the two best horses he had beaten were Smooth Air and Tomcito. Both nice horses but certainly not two that would have been rated with the top of their class. But now he's beaten the class and we can't wait for the Preakness. Let's hope that his foot problems are behind him and that we get to see this colt have his chance to make history.

Great horses make everyone around them great. Their stories are often the result of strange circumstances and twists of fate. In racing attrition seems to work in reverse. Instead of eliminating one's chances, if one is competent enough and perseveres there is enough luck that some usually finds everyone. For an owner, trainer or jockey to get a Kentucky Derby winner not only do they have to be good, they also have to be looked upon by Lady Luck. Then there are those who have come close to having that lightning strike and we feel for them when it doesn't. This year, as last year, with Curlin and Helen Pitts, one has to wonder what Patrick Reynolds is feeling? And how nice a story would it have been if Bernie Stutts had won with Smooth Air? I'm sure the gods of racing have their reasons.

I've read suggestions that this year's crop of three year olds is a weak one. I think perhaps this year's crop, as a whole, hasn't had the race experience of past years, but I don't believe the horses that lined up for the Derby are a particularly weak group. They were just beaten by a superior horse. I wrote in my Derby Picks entry that I didn't think Big Brown was a Curlin. Well, I can't wait to find out if I've erred on that account as well. It's a long way to the Classic but Big Brown promises to make it an exciting ride!

134 Kentucky Derby 134

Wow-ouch! Thoroughbred racing is like no other sport on earth. It exhilarates and it hurts; it exalts and it humbles. It makes us brave and it makes us cry. Most of all it demands that we cannot escape our humanness. Through it we experience life and death. If one was able to watch the 134th Kentucky Derby and not shed tears for Eight Belles then you are not alive. If one was able to watch the 134th Kentucky Derby and not be absolutely astonished and awed by a colt named Big Brown then you are not alive. Eight Belles broke down after the wire, breaking both front ankles and had to be euthanized on the track. Eight Belles, like every single thoroughbred who breaks down, whether they be a $1500 claimer or a filly running second to a colt in the Kentucky Derby, give their life for what they were born to do, what they love to do; run as fast as they can for as far as they are able. That is what humbles us: brilliance, focus, ability and success. I think we experienced true greatness today both in Big Brown and in Eight Belles.

Life is fragile. We know that for something to live something else must give its' life. That is simply the law of existing. Seldom is it played out on a stage as dramatic as an event with the magnitude of the Kentucky Derby. But today it was. Today, we saw another undefeated Kentucky Derby winner. He adds his name to a short list of, Barbaro, Smarty Jones, Seattle Slew, Majestic Prince, Morvich and ironically, the filly named Regret. He won like few have. He left all but the lone filly far behind, accelerating away from the herd as though he had entered the race at the top of the stretch. After it had ended there was no sign of exertion, no lather, no flared nostrils, just a buck to toss his jockey, Kent Desormeaux, to the ground as if to grab the spotlight for himself. It seems that Big Brown has enough of a class edge over his peers that he has to be considered the best chance since 1978 to go on and win the first triple crown since Affirmed. Perhaps we are witness to the emergence of one of the greatest horses of all time. But nothing comes for free. For everything great there is great sacrifice. Unfortunately, that sacrifice manifest itself in the loss of the exceptional filly, Eight Belles. If Big Brown does go on to make history the loss of Eight Belles will not mar that accomplishment. His accomplishment would assure that she is forever remembered. So let's hope Big Brown goes on to become worthy of her loss. Let's revel in the ultimate emotional and physical exhibition of thoroughbred horse racing. Let's exalt in the victory of Big Brown and mourn with the connections of Eight Belles. I love this sport.

The Future

At Left at the Gate. Alan has posted the artistic rendering of the racino at Aqueduct. And I couldn't agree with him more; it certainly looks like Belmont! I disagree with him as to believing Belmont to be a better location for a racino. I think it would be a shame to taint Belmont with that burden. Not that I don't expect it to become a reality I just don't want to see it. I fully expect that there will eventually be a racino at both sites. While I think I understand the realities of the situation more often than not things are not as they appear. I fully expect Capital Play to be the winning bidder simply because Bruno's sons' connection, not because it would be the best deal for everyone. One never knows where the true deal is being played out. Politics!

I also disliked the NYRA contract agreement. Specifically I don't like that they gave the title to the properties in this deal. I fully believe that they were the more rightful title holders. Why give away an asset for 25 cents on the dollar? Especially when that's based on today's values! Imagine what the value of the land is going to be worth in twenty five years! Perhaps one would need to go back to some of the great racing families and partners that had possession when NYRA was first formed and granted a franchise to find the true owners. Regardless, both parties seem to have exhibited a weakness in the belief of their claims of ownership to make such an agreement. For those at NYRA it seems a secure way to guarantee their jobs for a generation without giving up anything they own personally. It's always easy to give away your neighbor's car! Still I do believe that NYRA was and is the best choice to run NY racing. For the state I have to believe that if they thought they had any leg to stand on they would have just taken possession. The cards are stacked in their favor to begin with! I worry because I do not trust the state to look out for the well being or best interest of the industry. Here's what I expect by the time the twenty five years have past. First, I don't think Aqueduct will exist anymore. I imagine a racino surrounded by condos. I expect a racino at Belmont. I worry that Saratoga will become a full gaming facility Casino. Judging by all the high-end condos already built and continuing to be built in Saratoga one has to wonder if it isn't already in the works. I am concerned that these means of guaranteed, easier, less expensive forms of revenue will diminish the "concern" for racing and therefore its presence as a viable entity. I know every one's happy that racing hasn't stopped. But did anyone really think they were going to let it end? It's a cash cow! And without racing what excuse or location could be given for building the racinos that are just going to get the state even more revenue? Ditto for the NYC OTB's! Be careful of a government bearing gifts... Just my two-cents!

Oaks Day !

A quick post for Oaks Day! I'm lucky enough to get the day free to see some of the races leading up to the Oaks and to comb through the Form for the carryover at Belmont! ESPN2 will be airing the Oaks on a program running from 5-6 EDT. so I wouldn't have missed the race anyway but one certainly doesn't get a feel for the day without getting to see some of the races. But had this been 'Fillies Friday' and I wasn't able to get the time off I would miss all but perhaps the final two CHAMPIONSHIP! races! That's no way to run a sport. Sorry for beating a dead...

Anyway I'll post a Oaks Day pick 6 here, though I probably will only play the P6 at Belmont.

Race 5: I like #8 Indian Ashton - He continues to improve and is in top form and hasn't missed a beat training. He gets the outside post- minimizing early mishap possibilities and he should benefit from the extra 1/2 f. #1 Atticus Kristy is a horse for the course and would add nice value to an exacta.

Race 6: #7 Ginger Punch. To me a no brainer, especially with the defections Bayou's Lassie and Silver Knockers. She should have it her way all the way around.

Race 7: #6 Grace and Power. She can win fresh and if the works are a true indication of her growth I think she will out class this field. Johnny V. doesn't hurt either!

Race8: #6 Chelokee. It's time for him to run to his potential and I think his rivals here have lost a step or two.

Race9: #4 Processor's Turf. Any horse with a late turn of foot like this colt has I'd never bet against on the turf! I'll box him with #6 Halo Najib in an exacta that should pay well even if it is Pletcher and Romans!

The Oaks: I'm going with #11 Pure Clan. She hasn't done anything wrong yet and is still moving forward. I imagine she's had a lot of stamina building jogs in between those works and that last work was perfect to set her up. I love that Prado's aboard. I think she steps up into the elite company of 3yo fillies today. #6 Country Star will rally for place just like her sire did in the Derby and #7 Little Belle will hold on to round out the trifecta.

Good luck to everyone! And enjoy the racing!

Results:
Unfortunately the weather didn't cooperate Friday and we were faced with muddy and yielding conditions. I'm not sure how that would have changed any of my choices without going back over the card. You can adjust at the track but not with preselected choices. But, that's racing! Over all the picks didn't do well at all.
*Indian Ashton jumped up at the break and then took a right hand turn before being hustled back into the race but it was too much to overcome. But he did seem the best in the race.
*Ginger Punch ran as expected.
*Grace and Power flattened out.
*Chelokee broke down at the 3/16ths.
*Processor's Choice didn't figure at all.
*Pure Clan ran well to get show money, but there was no beating Proud Spell. Little Belle held on for place. But no payday here. That's what happens when you try to beat the best in a race!
On to Derby Day!

Derby Picks

I had been leaning toward Cool Coal Man as the horse. I like his pedigree and that he is probably fresher than most of the other colts. I am throwing out his Blue Grass appearance for the same reason I throw out Pyro's performance (later). I think he is ready to make a real move forward. I just don't think it will be enough to overcome a tough post and some even tougher competition on Saturday, so I've decided against him as my choice to win. I know he's been in post one several times before and it has not been an insurmountable problem for him, however, this is the Derby and the slightest hesitation and there's a stampede in front of him. He also has to stand in the gate longer than anyone but Z Humor. That doesn't bode well for either horse. As a final reason I don't like that he is a little slight of flesh. I almost prefer a smaller horse to a large horse in the Derby, but there is a big difference between small and light. For these reasons I'll keep any bets on Cool Coal Man limited to my exotics with perhaps a small bet as long shot. He's a nice colt and I look for him to improve throughout the year.

The connections of Big Brown are brimming over with confidence. I don't buy into it. Not that I don't think he has the talent. I just don't think that he can win with just three starts and, at least up until now, a one dimensional style. No doubt he's talented but Curlin couldn't win with three starts and I don't think he's a Curlin. Coupled with the outside post I think it's too much to overcome. Obviously what speed there is in the race is on his inside and he's going to want the lead. It's not only a long journey to the finish line, from out there it's along way to the rail! If he doesn't make the lead I give him little to no chance to win. If he makes the lead - he most likely will - I don't think he'll be able to to just make his own pace. I think he'll just have to expend too much too early to be there at the end. If you have to ask a horse to learn too much at once you're doomed. The Derby is the most difficult race situation a horse will ever face and he'll likely need to learn a few new tricks to get to the wire first. I'm throwing him out.

For the winner I had to decide between two: Pyro and Colonel John. I think they both have all the tools: pedigree, experience, agility, tactical speed and the ability to finish well. I was a bit concerned when I read Colonel John was tentative in his first experience at Churchill. But those concerns were put to rest with his final work. Many seemed concerned that he went too fast in that last work. It never bothered me. Good horses work fast. Anyone who has seen him run and has seen his stride would have expected him to cover ground quickly. The only question was if he was going to take to dirt. If he did I fully expected him to move forward on it.

Pyro has exhibited everything one would want in a Derby favorite. He had some top level performances at two against the best of his crop. He moved forward at three, making all the dances on his card. In those races he demonstrated his mental and physical abilities. Obviously the only knock is The Blue Grass. I am going to throw that race out. I think it's much easier for a horse to go from synthetic to dirt than the other way around. If they can grab on the synthetic surface it would seem probable they would get even better traction on the dirt. But the other way around? - maybe not. The only intangible I am not throwing out about that race is the psychological effect. If we take Pyro's history at face value one would have to conclude that he will come back to fight gallantly. But he never finished that far up the track. Will it have an effect on Pyro? Will it have an effect on Bridgmohan's confidence in Pyro? I think the answer to both of these questions is probably not; but they are questions remaining to be answered. For that reason I am going with Colonel John to win, Pyro to place. Rounding out the trifecta I'm going with Big Truck. I like how he's been working. He has also shown resilience of mind and ability to adapt. I'll leave Cool Coal man in for the super.