House Subcommittee Hearings

I'm not a proponent of big government or its' intervention into the lives of its citizens. However, I do believe a government has a responsibility to see to it that any business that operates under its' protection also maintains a behavioral standard of operation that is in concert with the beliefs upon which that government is founded. In theory [our] government should protect the right of the individual over the interest of a business. Of course that's not what happens in practice. While it does happen that in the course of protecting business interests sometimes the government is protecting personal interests as well, I'm pretty certain that is not always the reasoning behind the action. Indeed I have lost faith in our government's ability to respond to the needs of the people. Perhaps it's runaway bureaucracy or just flat out corruption run rampant that is the cause. I can start another blog dedicated just to this subject, but, I bring it up because of the House subcommittee hearings set for the 19th, specifically dedicated to horseracing. I think government action is well past due in this instance because the industry has continued to demonstrate that they are unable to collectively address some of the issues that are vital to the well being of the industry. In my mind (and in the mind of almost all fans) the most important issue is the use of drugs, including steroids. The resolution of this issue is absolutely necessary to the health of the industry. It speaks to the most important ingredients for a healthy sport. First with uniform, strictly monitored and harshly enforced drug laws the fan can feel much more certain of the integrity of the game. Confidence is necessary if we are to expect fans to continue to invest their money at the track. Also, it would be a clear and unmistakable sign that effort is being made to insure the well being of the horses. Further, it would result in better breeding practices that would undoubtedly favor improving the breed by emphasizing soundness and endurance. With drug laws implemented we would be confident that horses that dominated in the afternoons are truly the superior horses.

There are many other issues that are slated to be considered as well. In my opinion there are few other, but imperative, necessities. There absolutely needs to be central regulatory authority that actually has authority to coerce action. There is discussion of amending the Federal Interstate Horseracing act of 1978 to insure adherence to conclusions that may result from the hearings to do just this. I also believe the industry needs absolute transparency as to all of its sources of income and exactly who is receiving what percentage of those monies. I mean all. We should know what cut the horsemen are getting, so we can be certain that a fair portion is being reinvested into the product. We should know what offshore AWD's are getting rebates and why. After all, in the long run it is the fan's money who pays for it.

I don't hold much hope that great things will come from these hearings. In my experience these shows are just that, pomp and circumstance. In the end, manifest results will be determined by who can contribute the most to who's re-election campaign or what fringe benefits or favors can be bestowed without detection. We all know who possesses the deepest pockets in the industry, so, as I stated, I don't expect much change. Sound a bit jaded? When it comes to big money and big government's ability or desire to do the right thing you bet I'm jaded!

You can read about the other issues - that would be ill conceived micro-managing on the part of the government - at either the Bloodhorse or DRF.

Clay's Folly?

I'll use the same sentence I used to start off yesterday's entry: What a difference a race makes! A horse never went from saviour to scapegoat any faster than Big Brown. One moment he seemed the horse to lift racing back into the stratosphere of elite sport but not even a race later his legacy more closely resembles the sub prime mess.

That is as good a place to start as any. The entire industry resembles Wall Street too much these days. There is no patience, everyone wants the big payoff now and those in error are willing to make everyone else pay for their mistakes. Hopefully, Big Brown will become an unwitting saviour and begin to put an end to the ridiculous scheme of the breeding industry.

The Clays are rumoured to have paid between $50 and $60 million for Big Brown. If you were in their place what would you be feeling right now? I'll tell you what: PANIC! They have no one to blame but themselves. They have been in the breeding industry for almost a quarter century. While that's not a long time compared to many families in the industry it's long enough to be able to know value. One can only hope that there are a lot of contingency clauses in that agreement. In my opinion Big Brown's pedigree is not a $150-$200k pedigree, even if he won the Triple Crown. I'm sure as I write this the ads stating "Unbeaten Triple Crown Winner BIG BROWN," have been reworked with the fee left out for the time being (does $75k interest you? Me either. Not at this point for sure. In the future I'd consider purchasing one of his daughters).

Can any horse really be worth that much? Maybe if they prove themselves over time like AP Indy or Storm Cat - and I would argue that Storm Cat was grossly overpriced for a long while - but the industry continues to push this upside down scheme. They put all the risk up front. It is no different than the stock market. They need to recoup all or most of their investment within the first three years so that in the event a horse gets no runners the balloon doesn't pop leaving them holding the proverbial hot potato. It's no different than the sub prime mess. Those mortgage institutions and banks that practiced the policies that led us into this mess knew what they were doing. They got their money, sold their problem off and everyone is paying except for them. Well that's exactly the same principle here. While a commercial breeder isn't forced to breed to the new kid on the block many will, even at inflated prices because he's the new fashion. It leaves a lot of people holding 'bad paper.' Well, I think that Big Brown will have to go on to win the Travers and the Breeder's Cup Classic to become a fashion instead of a fad. I say both races because, let's face it, this crop ain't much! Da'Tara had won only one race coming into the Belmont Stakes and was beaten more than 23 lengths by Big Brown in his only other graded stakes. While the field wasn't spectacular aside form the maiden Guadalcanal the remainder were expected to outrun him!

I also have to wonder who Three Chimneys were bidding against. Darly is a lot like Lola, what they want they get, so I can't imagine they were interested. With the Northern Dancer sire line one would expect Coolmore to have had some interest but with their wallet I can only assume that they either were not interested or were more astute in assessing his value in the breeding shed than Three Chimneys. I find it difficult to imagine that anyone so steeped in the industry got so wrapped up in the excitement of the Triple Crown chase that they lost sight of the bigger picture.

How can this flaw be remedied? Well how about graduated contracts with owners of a horse? A much smaller sum is paid up front for a stallion prospect with bonus and windfall payments throughout the life of the stallion to the owners based on his popularity, success and breeding fee. In this way the risk is spread around. If all involve truly believe in a horses value and they are proven right it certainly wouldn't take long to reap large rewards. Distorted Humor is a good example of this truth. With this system if a stallion prospect goes bust, as most do, the loss is much easier to be absorbed by all involved. Certainly full breeding rights can be purchased later when a truer value can be assessed instead of just speculated upon. Also the cost to everyone from the breeders to the buyers would (at least should, in theory) be more realistic considering the risk involved.

I am tempted to continue here with thoughts of this new 'Legend Fund' but I'll save it for another day. All I will say is one would have to be crazy, or EXTREMELY wealthy to invest in that venture. I'm sure the organizers are planning on the later. No, I take that back they must be counting on extremely rich and crazy!

Belmont Aftermath

What a difference a race makes! Big Brown the seemingly invincible colt, the sure thing, can lose. Once the invincible aura is broken fear just becomes respect. Does this mean BB is not a great horse? Certainly not. But he will need to continue to race and win, for us to be able to place him among the greats of racing. The 'great' Secretariat failed to win five times (once disqualified) but that fact doesn't for a moment tarnish his reputation. Man O' War, still regarded by many as the greatest horse of all time, lost once. They both raced 21 times. For a horse to earn "all-time" honors it needs to prove itself over time, against worthy competition.

Certainly BB's competition didn't suddenly become great and yet he lost. Team Brown are all looking for a reason, as though there is one. The truth is that there are probably many factors that contributed to him losing. The most formidable being that the Triple Crown may be the most difficult accomplishment in sports. For a horse to run three times in five weeks against the best competition the sport has to offer and win, has to be the greatest of achievements. Perhaps even more so in this era when in each contest there is new, fresh competition. BB's quarter crack didn't help him either. Whether it became a factor in the race we'll never know but it did become a factor in his training. Schedules were changed, gallops were missed and he was likely handled somewhat differently even if unconsciously. Steroids: we have heard Dutrow and veterinarians state that they don't believe not receiving his monthly shot of Winstrol could have had any negative effect on his performance. I completely disagree. I don't think racing should allow any drugs but at this point they are legal and were being used by BB, why would Dutrow do anything different before the penultimate performance? It's dangerous to substitute arrogance for confidence. Zito, who won with Da' Tara, along with Pletcher, who ran Ready's Echo (dead heated for 3rd) were two that refused to state positively yes or no when asked if their horses were running on steroids; I think we all interpret that non-answer the same way. So even if not receiving his shot didn't diminish BB's performance he was running against horses that were using and so their performance was enhanced. A horse that I liked very much going into the race, Icabad Crane, doesn't use them and he beat only Big Brown. It makes one draw some conclusions, doesn't it? Yet another reason may be as Desormeaux said, the track was deep and he was just not handling it well. And let's not forget the heat. Although he looked well in the post parade there was no telling how any of them would handle the heat. I worked around a horse that responded to heat by hanging his head and letting his bottom lip just droop so low it was practically on the ground. I thought he would just keel over at any moment. But as soon as the cool weather returned his head rose like a flower reaching for the sun.

All of these are probably reasons that contributed to Big Brown's loss. But the way he lost bothered me the most. Desormeaux pulled him up like he had broke down. The horse may have had nothing left in the tank but he had enough to fight Desormeaux about being pulled up. Desormeaux spit the bit, not the horse. I think we all agree, he was not going to win, but Desormeaux just quit. He should have let the horse do what he could. I'm not saying he should have whipped BB, but just worked with what was left. Let the horse lose like a champion should, fighting, even if there is nothing left in the tank and he is not going to win. It smacks a bit of the kid who takes his ball and goes home because he's not winning. I think Desormeaux's despondency resulted in a loss of dignity for Big Brown, the dignity of losing like champions do, by trying until the end. Perhaps it stole a bit of dignity from the sport as well. It's a hard thing to say because I can't do what he can but that's just how I see it. Of course he must have been overwhelmed with disappointment, the one scenario he wasn't prepared for, but you have to finish. To be too certain is a dangerous emotion and it leaves us empty when we realize our beliefs were misplaced.

We want our hero's to demonstrate courage in winning and losing. That is what it means to be a champion; to face adversity and return with a renewed vigor, not a broken spirit. Why was Affirmed so great? Because he was measured against Alydar, also a true champion, who came back to fight every fight and never lost tenacity! I wonder what the heart of Big Brown is feeling now? As much as I believed he would win I was ambivalent about BB because I didn't think he was the right horse, in the right circumstances with the right credentials to be the one. But I will be rooting for him to rebound and go out and prove that he is a champion, I want to see him have that opportunity.

BB's Belmont

What a shame for the connections of Casino Drive! To lose the chance of realizing a dream after so much time, effort and money has been spent has got to be gut wrenching. In my mind they are absolutely making the right decision. Many believed that he had the best chance to beat Big Brown, I was not one of those.

I can take the safe route and pick Big Brown to win, almost everyone is. I do think he will most likely win. But I'll take a stand against him. So many freak things can and do happen in racing, that's why they run the races. Here's a way I can see him get beat.

With Guadalcanal's lack of 'big race' experience the noise causes him to break in on Big Brown. Of course spotting the field a few lengths at the Belmont distance probably wouldn't be enough to get BB beat. But he does like to be forwardly placed and if something like a bump or a bad break occurs Desormeaux and BB will have quite a bit of traffic with which to contend. Zito has already stated that Alan Garcia will be told to play the rabbit with Da' Tara so perhaps this will insure a decent pace to the race. I can see Tale of Ekati sitting back off him three lengths while BB has to exert some early effort going wide to get into his comfortable racing position (out of trouble). Icabad Crane will probably be hanging six or seven lengths further back with Denis of Cork just outside him a length or so. By the time they get a three quarters, in lets say 1:11.8, Da' Tara will start to falter. Big Brown, after working early and wide will inherit the lead with a mile in 1:37 with Tale of Ekati two back and Ready's Echo moving up within two lengths also. It will look like lights out. But the field, that has raced in 1:13.2 + and 1:38.4 +, begins to gain. Macho Again and Denis of Cork will be the first to cut into the lead. With an eighth remaining Ready's Echo falters, Tale of Ekati is slowly fading but Denis of Cork and Macho Again are hanging tough. Then Icabad Crane, who has had a perfect trip all the way around, starts to gain. And from the back of the field Guadalcanal is picking up horses. At the sixteenth Denis of Cork is within two lengths of BB Icabad is still gaining a length behind Denis of Cork. A hundred yards out Icabad Crane comes eye to eye with BB. Desormeaux whips BB with no response they fight it out the last hundred yards like Affirmed and Alydar...and at the wire Icabad Crane beats him with a nod! Denis of Cork finishes third three lengths back and from out of the heavens Guadalcanal finishes with a flurry to complete the superfecta! The race goes in 2:27 flat.

Okay, I know... but it's a lot more exciting than the race will probably be!

CDI and NYRA, Slowly Sinking Ships

Churchill Downs has decided to rewrite the conditions of The Stephen Foster to insure that Curlin will enter. It will sweeten the pot by $250k. That's enough for another Grade I race, so it's a lot of sweetening. I generally don't like to get involved in subjective interpretation because more often than not it will deconstruct an issue to the point that there seems no true meaning at all. But I'm going to have to jump in here and interpret this action as a slap in the face to the horsemen. At a time where CDI is claiming hardship they have somehow come up with an extra $250k to bring a few more people to the track and pad the purse total for Curlin. I admit that having the opportunity to see Curlin will undoubtedly bring some more people to the track - it would get me there - but I don't see how it helps CDI at all. If it does anything it will likely drive the wedge, between THG and CDI, deeper. This seems an obvious observation, so much so that I cannot believe that the action was taken without that intent. The problems in racing just continue to become more complicated and partisan. In the cold climate that now exists between CDI and the horsemen this is another shot across the bow of the horseman's ship. It signals not hardship or need but that they have deep enough pockets to carry this fight further than the horsemen may be able to go. With attendance and handle down how long will it be before CDI announces yet another cut in purses, citing these very facts? With the hardship that the horesemen are probably already feeling such an action may be the final straw. I cannot stress enough how strongly I feel that the horsemen need to win this battle for the health of the industry. Without a healthy percentage of money going to the horsemen it makes the industry seem very much like our society at the moment where the very few benefit from the labor of the many. Without a reasonable amount of money to finance purse structure etc., racing may cease to be a feasible vocational activity. Everyday racing at Churchill Downs is already woefully lacking in its ability to produce a compelling product for consumption.In what condition will that leave racing in Kentucky if further damage to the product is incurred through the actions of CDI?

Conditions are not much better here in New York with the continuation of the NYC OTB problems. Whatever the outcome it will greatly impact NYRA and NY racing in general. Mayor Bloomberg, Governor Patterson, Majority leader Bruno, Speaker Silver, NYRA CEO Charles Hayward and NYC OTB are at odds with rectifying the situation. That's a scary lot of self interest across the table! Good luck getting a deal out of that gang of six that does not contain obfuscation to the point of illusion. The only thing I am certain of is that any agreement will result in loss for the fan and the horsemen. From where I sit the comments I have read from the players make NYRA's future much murkier than it seemed to be two months ago. Matt Hegarty explains the situation in his DRF article.

BB's Big Day

This morning is probably the most critical morning in Triple Crown racing in 30 years. Big Brown is scheduled for his final work, sans patch. After reading the article in the DRF about why Dutrow has decided to put off applying the patch I have to agree with his reasoning.

McKinlay added: "There's a slight, slight, slight chance that something's in there. I don't think there is. There's no seepage at all. But when you apply the methacrylic patch, a lot of heat is generated. You could get something 72 hours later."
McKinlay said the remote chance of developing a problem on Friday if a patch was applied Tuesday was not worth risking.
"If I owned the horse, I'd treat him the same way," McKinlay said.
"The longer you wait, the better for him," Dutrow said.
Both Dutrow and McKinlay said working without the patch was not an issue.

However, after looking at Barbara Livingston's picture of BB's foot I would be anything but confident about sending him out for the type of work he probably needs. I would also be worried about being able to contain him during the drill. The crack is in an area I think would be very vulnerable to a horse extending itself. But of course he needs the work and so the drama builds. And, of course, the watch won't be over after the work is over. Often it takes time for a new or worsening problem to present itself. So team IEAH will be sweating it out for a while even if all goes well Tuesday morning.

If this wasn't for all the marbles there is no way the horse would run; it wouldn't even be considered. So I have to ask; are they considering not running him? I think the thought has had to cross their minds...more than once. I'm certain there's not a racing fan out there that hasn't ruminated upon all the possible scenarios, some of them not very pleasant to think about. If he stays together and runs, win or not, let's just hope he makes it around safely. Racing doesn't need any more tragedy.

I've heard so many people speak of Casino Drive as the likeliest candidate to challenge BB that you would think there are only two horses running. I have friends coming up to me that aren't even race fans asking me about him. The power the press has over people never fails to astound me! Obviously the pedigree is there and he certainly looked terrific in the Peter Pan but he's only raced twice! As talented as he may be I think this is an awful big mountain to climb. It's possible but I just don't see it happening. At the moment I think the two most logical contenders are: Denis of Cork who seems to be on schedule to peak for the race and I still like Icabad Crane to improve some more as well as loving his pedigree. But I'll wait to see how the remainder of the week plays out before I post my picks at the end of the week.

ZENYATTA! ...otb mess

ZENYATTA! Wow! How good is she? Mike Smith and John Sherriffs must think they're in heaven. She's a $60k Keeneland Sep.'05 purchase proving once again you don't have to pay a lot to get a lot of horse. While that's not exactly chump change for average folks it does illustrate that the little guy is still able to strike gold in this game. Not that the Moss's need worry about that issue. They certainly do keep coming up with good horses year after year. I wonder who their agent is? In any case she's a Street Cry *Ire filly out of Vertigineux (Kris S) who is also the dam of Grade I winner Balance, as well as Where's Baily, an Aljabr filly that won the Remington Park Oaks. She has the type of pedigree that is just beautiful to me.

Vertigineux raced only 7 times with a record of 2-0-0. I point this out because it is my contention that a mare need not prove herself on the track like a colt. I would always choose a lightly raced or unraced mare with good pedigree over a great race mare. It is my observation that the duration of a mare's career, more often than not, seems to have an adverse effect on their ability to produce superior progeny. I don't know if there have been any studies that would confirm this and of course there are always exceptions but I stand by this thought. My suppositions are that either they tax their system so much so that they permanently harm the health of their reproductive system or that the hormones they are given to keep them from cycling is damaging.

On a completely different subject, here in NY the shenanigans surrounding NYRA continue. Last week Governor Patterson expressed ambivalence about having NYRA to continue to run NY racing. Days later he was back stepping. It is just a comedy what goes on in NY around racing in our state. The government is constantly finding ways to bind the hands of the franchise and then heaps blame on their inability to run an efficient ship. Aside from problems imposed on it I also think that part of the problem is it's non-profit status. All the non-profits I'm familiar with would be better named the 'non-efficients'. They seem to lack accountability and perhaps that is the worst aspect of NYRA. Too much waste like in all bureaucracies. In the process of awarding NYRA the 25 year extension the legislature failed to address the issue of OTB's in NY. What are they thinking? It appears that they welcome problem situations. I think that the more convoluted they can make a system the more they can find ways to steal from it.

For those of you not from NY we have a regional OTB system, six in all, that is separate from NYRA. So that NYC OTB, Catskill OTB, Capital District OTB, etc.. all have separate deals with the state and with NYRA. This means six separate, but redundant, bureaucracies and work forces exist with all the waste that entails. In effect each is its own special interest group looking to benefit itself, not necessarily racing. It's confusing and almost impossible to keep track of all the problems, percentages and issues that surround them all. They should all be under one agency -NYRA - with a consistent, clear, realistic business plan. It is as thought the state welcomes chaos.

Several weeks ago Capital District OTB requested a change in its payout structure that would result in $12 million dollar shortfall to NYRA. For months now we have also had Mayor Bloomberg threatening to close the NYC OTB's in June, stating that the city is subsidizing them. All just nonsense. It's posturing to hold the racing industry upside down to shake more money from its' pockets. There's only one thing politicians like more than being in office and that's money. I think mayor Bloomberg has been a fine mayor, however, I have disagreed with him on quite a few issues and this is one of them. I say let him shut them down. With all the AWD's out there New Yorker's will find a way to play and watch and NYC will lose all the money they get from OTB. We'd truly see who is supporting whom quick enough. The long and short of this is that another deal will have to be made for the NYC OTB's that will again result in adding to the shortfall to NYRA and in turn that means the fan will have to pay. This all at a time where NYRA has been going through a restructuring to reemerge from bankruptcy. How can any plan NYRA submits be regarded to have integrity when the state is constantly changing the formula with which it gets compensated for its product?