Peter Pan S. (G2)

Belmont Park
Peter Pan S. (G3)
1-1/8 Three-Year-Olds $200,000

After Mine That Bird’s upset victory in the Run for the Roses any horse exiting the Sunland Derby will merit reassessment. One of those colts is Scorewithcater, who bested the Derby winner by ¼ length while finishing 3rd. Three weeks prior he scored a neck victory over him in the Borderland Handicap. Scorewithcater likes to come from off the pace. The Peter Pan field is filled with colts that like to be forwardly placed so the race sets up well for him. Also, his pedigree (Even the Score – Runaway Cater by Runaway Groom) suggests that he would benefit from moisture in the surface and after a week of clouds and rain in New York he’s likely to get that. Saturday’s forecast is also calling for morning showers. But, the question remains: is he good enough to win? I don’t think so. But he will have a good pace to close into and I expect the Doug O’Neill trained colt to hit the board.

All eyes will be on Imperial Council. During the prep season the 2-1 ML favorite was considered by many to be a top Derby candidate. His Wood Memorial put the final nail in the coffin of those hopes and now he’s back to prove that the talk wasn’t just hype. Both of his stakes appearances- Wood Memorial (G1), Gotham (G3) - were around two turns and the results were less than stellar. The one turn Peter Pan should be more to his liking. Although his pedigree says distance he has yet to prove that he can win over a route of ground in graded company. He shows a very interesting work tab since the Wood M. There are three tightly bunched works on 4/14, 4/17, and 4/19. I can only imagine he was kicking the barn down and they had to do something with him. He shows a 5f work on 4/26 in 1:02 and a bullet on 5/3. It appears to me that this is a horse that is ready for war. My concern is that he will be too sharp. I won’t be surprised if he wins, but I think he’ll fade approaching the wire and settle for second place money.

I had a very difficult time convincing myself Hello Broadway would win because I really don’t think the distance suits him. My instinct tells me he’ll come up short. However, his pedigree and his 6f work on 4/27 in 1:11 convinced me to give him the benefit of the doubt. That workout is much better than any other he shows at that distance. He then returned with a bullet work on 5/3. He is adding blinkers today and that should help him stay focused; his PP’s hint at him losing interest when he’s in front. Like Imperial Council, I think he’s a better one turn horse. Another point of confidence is that Garrett Gomez is in the irons. Hello Broadway has done his best running when creating the pace, but I’m expecting a different strategy on Saturday. I think they will try to get him to relax a few lengths off the pace, give him a target to run at – Imperial Council - and kick past at the wire. At 5-2 I’m not sure there is value in the wager but if he floats up to about 7-2, as I think he will, I think he is worth a wager. I’m giving him the nod over Imperial Council.

The sleeper in the race is Charitable Man. He may be the best horse in the field. But he’s going to have to prove it by beating me this race. Since moving to Keeneland and now Belmont his works do not instill confidence. At 3-1 on the ML I don’t like the risk. However, I think he is a horse that one should consider in exotics.

The Picks:
Win: Hello Broadway --- Stretches his limit to score the victory.
Place: Imperial Council- Too keen early and is beat at the wire.

Show: Scorewithcater ------------- The race sets up well for him.

KD results

I don't usually post a result column here but for the KD I decided it appropriate. For results each week visit Thorofan look for the ROTW.

Churchill Downs
Kentucky Derby (G1)
1-1/4 Three-Year-Olds $2,177,200

# Horse ------------------Win------Place------Show------Final Odds
8--- Mine that Bird ---103.20----54.00---- 25.80------$50.60 – 1
16--Pioneerof the Nile------------- 8.40----- 6.40---------$6.30 – 1
2---Musket Man--------------------------- 12.00------------ $19.00 – 1
Splits: 22.98--47.23--1:12.09--1:37.49--2:02.66
$2 Exacta $2,074.80
$2 Trifecta $41,500.60
WPS Pool $43,434,837
Winner: Mine that Bird (g) by Birdstone -Mining My Own (Smart Strike)
Owner: Double Eagle Ranch & Bueno Suerte Equine
Trainer: Bennie Woolley Jr.
Breeder: Lamantia,Blackburn & Needham / Betz Thoroughbreds

The 135th Kentucky Derby once again lived up to the moniker ‘the most exciting two minutes in sports.’ In a patented ‘Bo-rail’ move, jockey Calvin Borel guided the largely ignored Mine That

Bird from a pinched start to a shocking upset. The rail-skimming ride from last to first delivered last year’s Canadian champion two-year-old home 6 ¾ lengths ahead of one of the most contentious fields ever to contest the Kentucky Derby and simultaneously lit up the tote board with the second-biggest payoff in the history of the race. Borel’s unbridled enthusiasm was contagious as he paraded the smallish gelding in front of the cheering crowd of 153,563. The charismatic rider was basking in the glory of his Kentucky Oaks- Kentucky Derby paired successes.

On Friday the popular rider cruised home aboard the sensational and highly favored Rachel Alexandra. On that day more than 20-lengths separated him from the second-pace filly. On Saturday he reveled in every moment of this surprise win as trainer Bennie Wooley Jr. navigated to the infield winner’s circle across the sticky track on his crutches.

At the top of the stretch it looked as though a real race was developing, but Borel shot through on the rail and in a blink of an eye opened up a widening lead on the field. Pioneerof the Nile, Musket Man and Papa Clem battled it out to the wire for second money with Pioneerof the Nile besting Musket Man by a nose and Papa Clem finished a head back of him for 4th money. Both Pioneerof the Nile and Papa Clem were forwardly placed throughout and while no match for the winner continued bravely to the wire. Musket Man had some problems early as he slipped and was bumped but was still able to display why he should be taken more seriously.

In my pre-race analysis Musket Man had been my favorite, but all the bad press about him looking poorly during the week caused me to me jump ship late. Lucky for me, I resurrected my belief in him before post time and put a small wager across the board on the Illinois Derby winner. While I didn’t have to visit the IRS window, there was satisfaction in the result. I also played a Musket Man, Pioneerof the Nile, Papa Clem and Summer Bird superfecta. Unfortunately I picked the wrong ‘Bird.’ The super with Mine That Bird paid an astounding $557,006.40 for a $2 bet! Wow! The results emphasize the lesson that one should always stick with your beliefs. In horse racing anything can happen. If you enjoy the sport, put in the time to learn and observe--it can be a profitable endeavor as well as an enjoyable activity.

It’s my financial misfortune that I ignored playing my own sentimental favorite, Mine That Bird. He was bred in part by Needham/Betz Thoroughbreds in Lexington Kentucky. I had the pleasure of working for this farm during a couple of foaling seasons and while there helped in the care of Mine That Bird’s dam, Mining My Own. She was an unnamed weanling and yearling then. Her dam, Aspenelle also resided at the same farm. So it is with particular joy that I am able to extend my congratulations to my mentors in the breeding end of this business. Among their other success stories are Roman Ruler, El Corredor and Madcap Escapade. Congratulations! And well done!

The Kentucky Derby

Churchill Downs
The Kentucky Derby (G1)
1-1/4 Three-Year-Olds $2,000,000

For a race fan I think the Kentucky Derby (G1) is the easiest race of the year to handicap; it is also the easiest race to get wrong. It is easy because one knows all, or at worst almost all, of the entrants. We know their PP’s. We have watched all of their races. So, we have marked their progress and have an opinion about their abilities. As a result my KD handicapping is more a watch than a study. I wait for the final works and let my impressions simmer. I find the overload of information during Derby week can be a distraction. It is a race to go with your gut. It is easy to get wrong because with a field of 20 and a crowd of over a hundred thousand it is impossible to account for all the variables. So it’s best to keep it simple. Will there be good pace? Can one of the pace horses win? If not which colt will benefit from the pace? Who may get a good trip? And lastly, what does your gut say?

I think unquestionably there will be a good pace. Regal Ransom and Join in the Dance -Pletcher’s rabbit- will see to that. If Papa Clem reverts to his usual tactics he’ll be close as will Friesan Fire and Atomic Rain. I don’t think any of this group will survive to cross the wire first, especially if the pace for the first three quarters goes in 23+, 47+, 1:12+, as I expect it will. In his last race Papa Clem changed tactics, he ran off the pace and as a result won his first stake, the (G2) Arkansas Derby. His works have been criticized this week. He’s been tagged as looking “tired.” But, perhaps, Gary Stute is just trying to get him to rate. He’ll need to if he is to win. If they can rate him he has a chance.

There are a lot of closers in this race and Dunkirk leads the list. He seems to have been the “wise guy” horse since his first start. I don’t see it. I agree that he is very talented, maybe even good enough to win, but I am not a believer. He is a slightly built horse so the physicality of the Derby will be an issue as will the 126 lbs impost. Other late runners include West Side Bernie, Mr. Hot Stuff, Advice, Hold Me Back and Summer Bird.

West Side Bernie is coming off of his best race, this is his third race back in the cycle and he worked well this week. But this will be his third race at 1-1/8 or better in 42 days. That just seems too much to me to get the effort necessary to win the Derby. I also believe he is a bit short at 1 -1/4. I think his connections would have been best advised to wait for the Preakness S. (G1).

Hold Me Back is a good price at 15-1. His pedigree is impeccable and he has exhibited moments of brilliance. However, in his lone dirt performance he tanked. He works well on dirt so I would not be shocked to see him move up here but I think he is a level below the best of these.

I really like Summer Bird. Like Dunkirk this is only his 4th race but I think his road has been a bit easier on him. He has responded with a better performance at each asking and of the closers I think he will be the only one to hit the board.

Of the nine mid pack/ press type runners I don’t believe Mine That Bird, Nowhere to Hide or Flying Private have a chance of winning. Chocolate Candy needs to improve more than he is capable of to win. I also don’t like his action for the dirt, so I’m throwing him out. That leaves us with 5 runners from which I think 135th Derby winner will come: Musket Man, General Quarters, I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Desert Party.

Of all the colts running Musket Man is the one that I liked best coming up to the race. He is 5 for 6 and still improving. He also possesses all the tools. He is agile, has tactical speed and a late turn of foot. But what sets him apart for me is the will to win he exhibited in his Tampa Bay Derby (G3). To me there is no substitute for heart. Yes, his pedigree is suspect but he’s already proved he can outrun its apparent limits. He breaks from post 2 but with West Side Bernie on his inside and Mr. Hot Stuff to his outside he should have no trouble gaining position on the break. The only horses that will be in front of him will be the speed. He can settle at the rail sixth or seventh on the backstretch and wait until they start backing up. Hopefully, he won’t be blocked and can start his move ahead of the closers. If he does I think he could continue to outrun his pedigree and all the other’s to the wire. Unfortunately with reports of him doing so poorly at Churchill (making one wonder if he is ill) I can’t back him. This is what I mean about an overload of information. If this were another race would he already be scratched? That is how it poorly the reports of his works sound. He is the colt I liked best but with such poor reports I can't bring myself to back him.

Desert Party took a step back in his last prep against Regal Ransom and may be headed in the wrong direction. I also don’t think the Dubai races prepare them enough for this race so I can’t support him.

If General Quarters and Tom McCarthy win it would be the best story possible. However, he isn’t the most agile of horses and he needs room to get his motor into overdrive. I don’t think he’ll get a clean enough trip to overcome his limitations.

I Want Revenge is one of the most agile as demonstrated by his Wood Memorial (G1) win. His last two starts have made him a star. However, those fields played right into his strength. That will not be the case here. His last two Beyer’s have been two of the best for any three-year-old this year and I think it unlikely for him to repeat those numbers. He did post a bullet at CD on 4/28 so perhaps he is still on his game. But I’m betting he won’t be able to shake loose of this field and he’ll wilt before the wire.

Pioneerof the Nile has been on everyone’s radar since his two-year-old season. Since moving to synthetics and Bob Baffert’s barn he hasn’t lost. He’s won four stakes in a row, two of them grade I’s. He has faced some of the toughest opponents in this field and has come out on top. But, he has never raced on dirt. His works at Churchill point to him handling the track but racing and training are not the same. Though doubt remains, without Musket Man being one hundred percent, I think Pioneerof the Nile is the best horse in the race. He will be breaking from post 16 and probably get caught back farther than he is comfortable. But Gomez will give him the best ride possible. If he moves up at all on dirt I think he delivers another Derby to Baffert in the year of his induction to the Hall of Fame.

The Picks:
Win: Pioneerof the Nile -Baffert goes into the Hall in style.
Place: Summer Bird -Skips Preakness to run in the Belmont
Show: Papa Clem -Lays just a little too close and can’t finish.

Derby Trial S. (G3)

Churchill Downs
Derby Trial S. (G3)
7-1/2 Three-Year-Olds $100,000

The story of the Derby Trial S. (G3) is speed, speed and more speed. Usually such a race sets up perfectly for a late closer. In this race only Rendezvous fits that description. However, there are two considerations that need be addressed before handing him the race. First, even if the race is wickedly fast is he actually good enough to win against this very talented field of sprinters? Second, a race with so much speed rarely goes as fast as it appears it will. Will that be the case here? And if so who does that benefit?

I don’t like Rendezvous to win here. It’s been 70 days since he raced. His last cycle consisted of two races at a mile before attempting the 1- 1/8 El Camino real Derby (G3) on 2/14. He finished 3rd by five lengths to stable mate Chocolate Candy, in a mediocre race. A son of Victory Gallop it appears that Hollendorfer had him figured for a route horse and had him training appropriately. Generally speaking I don’t like horses going from a route to sprint first time back. Although 7 -1/2 isn’t your average sprint I think it’s really hard to train that kind of fitness into a horse, especially when facing the quality of sprinters he will be facing in this race. He does show a very nice work on 4/21 but, I don’t think his progression of works point to him being able to put forth the type of effort he would need to win. I can see him getting a small piece but that’s about all.

I don’t expect the race to go in suicidal fractions. Often a race that boasts a lot of speed horses is run in reasonable fractions, especially the first quarter; fast but not blazing. At 7 -1/2 no one wants to encourage an outright speed duel that would undoubtedly invite disaster. To my thinking that makes the second quarter the most important of this race. For that reason I like Santana Six. He is lightly raced and in his last two races, both at a mile, his second fraction was run faster than his first yet he still managed to finish professionally. In this race I think you want to be in front, but not too soon. He has the ability to take the heart away from other horses at just the right spot in a race. It’s been 28 days since his last race so he’s had plenty of time for recovery but not so much that he’s lost his edge. He had a nice tightener on 4/16 over the track at Churchill and Johnny V. stays on, forsaking the Pletcher entry of Checklist .

The horse I was leaning toward for 2nd was Silver City. He has run some really nice races. He has tactical speed and the rail. But I think his races are catching up with him. For that reason I also would have liked to see fewer works for him leading up to this race. Perhaps, then I may have stayed with him. Also, as much as I am a fan of Julien Leparoux’s talents I don’t think he fits this horse well. So I’m passing on him.

Hull, at 3-1 on the ML - second choice- was a surprise to me. Yes, he’s unbeaten but I’m not sure he’s really beaten anybody yet and this is a tough crew. I would have had him at about 5-1. He’s going to have to beat me. I don’t have the faith in him that other’s seem to.

The horse I ended up on is the Mott trained Tintim Por Tintim. His first race wasn’t great but it was a key race. And he was one of the reasons it became a key race. He returned to win next time out going a mile at Gulfstream in 1:36.66. In that race he also ran his second quarter faster than his first and finished well. This is only his 3rd race so he’s fresh and improving. He shows a nice line of works in preparation and Allan Garcia has taken the mount. Also Bill Mott places them where they fit. Perhaps this is a hunch more than a decision based on hard statistics, but those are always the best bets. I can see him and Santana Six keeping each other company two lengths off the pace until exiting the turn. But at the wire I think the added experience of Santana Six will win the day.

The Picks:
Win:------Santana Six. Not what Zito would have liked to win this meet but…
Place:----Tintim Por Tintim Not poor anymore.
Show:-----Rendezvous Still fits the race and he is trained by Hollendorfer.

The Coolmore Lexington S. (G2)

KEENELAND
Coolmore Lexington S.
1 -1/16 Three Year Olds $300,000

The Coolmore Lexington S. (G2) is supposed to be all about Square Eddie, but his supposed superiority, to even this rather pedestrian field, is questionable to me in this race. The reasons are manifold. First, he hasn’t raced in 91 days. Perhaps that’s not a big deal for older horses, perhaps even older three year-olds, but for a maturing three year old it can make all the difference in the world. It’s impossible to know where he stands in comparison to his crop at this point. Second, the layoff was brought about by injury. Further, it seems from his work tab that he is being rushed and his conditioning may be a bit light for his return. One can make the argument that his class will allow him to overcome. However, one can also look at his last race, The San Rafael (G3) on 1/17 where he ran second to The Pamplemousse, as a turning point where a maturing crop of newly turned three-year-olds started to catch up to him. There are also the considerations of race fitness and experience. Even though he has had 7 races one can envision a young three year-old being a bit green after such a layoff and shipping in from California. After taking all this into consideration one also has to question his ability to come back in three weeks to run in the Derby if he has a hard race. The fact that he doesn’t need the money to enter the gate on May 2 would have me believing the connections are not going to lay him down to win here. I see this as a glorified workout. He may very well be far superior to this bunch but at 9-5 and so many negatives I’m looking elsewhere for my winner.

I didn’t have to look any farther than the next stall from which El Crespo will break. I’m tossing out his first race (Keeneland ), last October, as a learning experience. Since then he has shown some real talent on the turf. In his next race he ran second going two turns at Churchill in what was a key race and followed that up by breaking his maiden going 1- 1/16 at Gulfstream Park. Owner, G. Watts Humphrey and trainer, George Arnold must have thought they had something special at that point because they brought him back in the Grade 3 Holy Bull. Unfortunately he finished up the track. He returned six weeks later to win the 9f Grade 3T, Palm Beach S. under the guidance of J.J. Castellano for the first time. I really like a horse that comes back from an awful performance and does something special. It shows they were not demoralized. It just wasn’t their day, their surface, or something just went wrong. Well he returns here fresh off that win and while it is not turf I think he should be able to transfer his form to the Keeneland track. He is a colt that can stay close on turf and sill finish well and that seems to be a style that lends itself to running well on synthetics. Arnold has kept him fit Castellano stay aboard and I think he will win.

The outside posts haven’t fared too well at Keeneland at 1-1/16th but I’m going to put Advice into my picks even though he breaks from post 11. In his first race this cycle on 2/26 he ran a very game race finishing 3rd going 1-1/16 in an N1x at SA. The comment read “lugged in 1/8.” He obviously got a bit leg weary which is understandable. On 3/29 Pletcher shipped him to New Mexico for the Sunland Derby. In that race he finished very nicely considering he was checked early. He shows a nice work over the Keeneland track and Pletcher takes the blinkers off. Pletcher is 24% when taking the blinkers off and I think this move will help pad that statistic. Advice likes to put in that one late run so this should help relax him early saving valuable energy. The race also sets up well for this type of runner. Gomez takes the mount and that’s never bad. I’m picking him to run very well and pick off horses late but come up short of the winner, El Crespo.

The Picks:
Win:-----El Crespo------Won’t go to Deby despite the win.
Place:----Advice----------Take it he’ll be in the money.
Show:----Square Eddie----Big questions to be answered.

For more analysis on this race check out Amateurcapper's analysis using thorograph figures.

The Arkansas Derby (G2)

Oaklawn Park
Arkansas Derby (G2)
1-1/8 3 Year Olds $1,000,000

According to Brisnet early speed types have won 43% at the 9f distance at Oaklawn Park this meet .The 9-5 morning line on Old Fashioned seems to be an acknowledgement that the suicidal fractions he ran in the Rebel S. (G2) were his undoing and that a repeat performance of that effort is not expected. I have to concur with that assessment. However, he will undoubtedly be on or close to the lead as always. The fly in the ointment may be Papa Clem. He likes to create the pace and will be the colt Old Fashioned tracks. He can’t ignore him but he can’t let him get away either. The race these two horses run will determine the outcome.

Danger to Society has displayed an interest in being forwardly placed but I don’t believe he can run the early fractions these two are capable of and still finish. Flying Private has also shown a proclivity to run up close in the past but more recently has taken back and that style has resulted in his best performances, so I don’t expect a change in this race.

After the Louisiana Derby (G2) rather than returning to California, Gary Stute decided to train Papa Clem at Oaklawn Park. I think that decision may turn out to make all the difference. While training on a track is not the same as racing over it, the familiarity and comfort it creates is sometimes invaluable. Following the La. Derby Papa Clem has continued to work very well and on schedule at Oaklawn.

The same can be said about Old Fashioned except that it was 17 days after the Rebel before he worked again. I am always concerned when I see a delay of that duration after a race. Did the race take too much out of him? Or is the trainer just trying to keep his horse fresh? After a race Larry Jones does have a tendency to wait longer than many trainers before his horses return to the work tab so in this case I’m going to presume the latter.

If Papa Clem goes to the front and Old Fashioned relaxes behind him, as I expect they will, we should be in store for a classic finish between the two. If they hook each other perhaps neither hits the board. I am betting on the former scenario. I don’t think the race will go fast enough to allow the field to close on the front two. While perhaps a bit boring I have to put this duo one, two.

To finish off the trifecta I’m going to take a stab at some value and pick the 30-1 morning line, Summer Bird. He is by Birdstone who is developing into a very nice sire and with his dam sire being Summer Squall, distance will never be an issue with this colt. The only question is ability and that question should be answered in this race. The light seemed to go on for this colt halfway through his first race, a 6f sprint, when he rallied from 8 lengths back to finish 4th by only a length. He broke his maiden next out going two turns. He earned a high speed figure in that race as he ran the 1- 1/16 at Oaklawn only one tick slower than the time of the Rebel S. four days earlier. He returned with a 5f bullet on 4/4. I like to see that kind of work after a horse runs a presumably hard race. To me it says the horse likes the competition and he’s ready for more. This is a pretty nice group of colts but a three year old can emerge quickly this time of year. At the price I think he’s worth risking a few dollars on.

The Picks:
Win: Papa Clem -- Papa finally gets a Black type win.
Place: Old Fashioned -- His last race leaves him a length short.
Show: Summer Bird -- He has to wait until the summer to fly

The Wood Memorial (G1)

Aqueduct
Wood Memorial
1-1/8th 3 Year Olds $750,000

Considering all the connections that had mentioned running in the 85th Wood Memorial (G1) the field came up as a bit of a disappointment. Perhaps the combined concerns for graded stakes money and running against I Want Revenge are too much of an impediment. That’s one of the problems with the system of having graded stakes earnings being the determinant to pass the entry box, but more about that another time.

The Wood Memorial (G1) is all about I Want Revenge. He is the legitimate 4-5 morning line favorite. It is his race to play with. He doesn’t have to win, he just needs a good effort to set him up well for the Kentucky Derby (G1). That consideration leaves some possibility for another colt to step up and get into the gate on May 2.

The most likely candidate is the McGaughey trained Imperial Council. Many of the “experts” have him on their top-ten lists even though he is lightly raced. His sire, Empire Maker, won this race in 2003 and as a result was installed as the favorite to take the roses. He is developing into a top sire and as a son of Unbridled is he has the pedigree to bestow the stamina necessary for the classic distances. However, the get of Empire Maker have, thus far, been notoriously slow developing. Better for the breed, perhaps, but to collect accolades in May? That’s yet to be determined. So questions remain for both of the ML favorites.

It is possible, likely in fact, that I Want Revenge will regress a bit from his career best Gotham performance. He is assured of being in the gate on May 2, so the incentive to push the colt to his limits is not present. Of course he probably won’t need that effort to beat this field. So the question is will his performance be good enough to win?

Imperial Council is likely to continue to improve. However, he did run a 98 Beyer in the Gotham as a distant runner-up to I Want Revenge . That’s already a big number and one wonders how much he can improve in 4 weeks. Also, as already noted, being a son of Empire Maker one would expect him to bloom more around the time of the Travers. So questions remain for him as well.

I don’t doubt that these two will hit the board. With the exception of West Side Bernie they are seemingly far superior to most of this field. However, as a handicapper one has to try to figure where there is value. And with these two there is none. If you can find a colt you like aside from them and West Side Bernie, the likely third betting choice, you may be able to cash a decent ticket.

I don’t like West Side Bernie here. He’s coming off a poor race in the Lane’s End (G2) just two weeks ago and is wheeled back here, in my estimation, to collect some graded stakes money. The caveat is that his best races have been on dirt. But I’ll pass. It’s too much too quickly.

My choice to hit the board is Lime Rickey. So far he has raced only on turf but being by Lemon Drop Kid out of a Deputy Minister mare he has every right to run as well or better on dirt than grass. He has fared well against the likes of Bittel Road and Pioneerof the Nile on turf and has displayed nice works on the main track at GP. There is a concern that he is a horse that has seconditis but I’m betting he just can’t finish up as well on grass as he will on dirt. Most of the field in the Wood likes to be close to the pace and that also sets up well for him as he likes to come from off the pace. I’ll just place one bet in this race, Lime Rickey across the board. The morning line is 20-1 and I’d be happy to get 8-1.

I was hopingto see Musket Man run in the Wood. I thought his Tampa Bay Derby (G3) was an exceptional race, and thought he would fit well at Aqueduct. I'm not sure that the Illionois Derby(G2) is a better choice for him. But back to the race at hand...

The Picks.

Win: Imperial Council -----He gets it done and get’s Shug a Derby berth.

Place: Lime Rickey----------Finally finds his surface and his seasoning pays off.
Show: I Want Revenge-----He does what he has to do.