Saturday, May 17, 2008

Preakness Day

Well I'll get the easy stuff out of the way first. My prediction for the Preakness......drum roll.......
Big Brown. There's not much else to say. Can he be beat? Yes, every horse can be beat until they prove otherwise. If I was going to pick a horse to upset today I'd go to Icabad Crane. He's run well on dirt and at Pimlico, his pedigree suggests not even a concern over the distance and he shows steady and continuous improvement. I can't imagine Gayego won't run better than he did in the Derby but with Paulo Lobo having been undecided until late in the process I have no confidence in him here. I love the way Reade Baker has talked about his charge, Kentucky Bear. And it would be a great story if he is able to refuse Big Brown's promise to deliver but, I think he's pushing his distance limitations here. Tres Borrachos has a similar progression to that of Icabad Crane and I think he's poised to move forward here, unfortunately for him he doesn't show an ability to rate and win and that spells disaster here. Yankee Bravo was a horse I liked but I think he will have distance problems as well. The other dark horse may be Giant Moon. I think he will like the added distance. He's working very well and Richard Schosberg is a good conditioner, Dominguez is up, what's not to like? Also, Al Fried's farm is up in Rhinebeck, NY my old home town so there's some sentimental attachment as well. So if I was to pick the top five in order it would be Big Brown, Icabad Crane, Giant Moon, Tres Borrachos and Gayego. Those NY breds keep getting better!

Well I had a lot more to say here but I somehow mistakenly deleted it and I've no time to rewrite it now. I'll try to post it later today or for tomorrow. I had a reply to the comment left to my Greed entry and some notes on yesterday's races. Well at least I didn't loose it all.

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